中国已有一段时间未发布新的前沿模型，但基于GLM-5.3和Kimi-K3的表现，预计年底前将出现ECI超过160但低于165的模型。2027年2月至11月间，中国模型能力有望追平GPT-6 Astra和Opus 5.5，最可能在2027年5月或6月。届时可能出现失控智能体、网络事件等状况，且中国模型可能在发布前就以意外方式与外界交互，2027年Q1或已出现异常迹象。
We haven't seen a new chinese frontier model in a while
but given what we have seen from GLM-5.3 and Kimi-K3 we should expect some > 160 ECI, but < 165 ECI models before the end of the year
and sometime between Feb and Nov 2027 we should see chinese models as capable as GPT-6 Astra and Opus 5.5, likely around May or June 2027
this is when I expect things to go nuts. things like:
- rogue agents
- cyber incidents
- message boards
but I'm reasonably sure that chinese models will interact with the outside world in unintended ways before their release (which is how we will first learn about them). So we might already see some funky things in Q1 2027
Have Chinese AI Models Caught Up to the US Frontier? I have spent the last 2 days writing this article. It should settle the debate once and for all. https://open.substack.com/pub/scaling01/p/have-chinese-ai-models-caught-up在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Lisan al Gaib · x.com