what do you think about this idea to chart current AI capabilities and factor in the acceleration/velocity of labs? don't read too much into the actual numbers, right now it's more a vibe of what model capabilities are right now and could be in 12 months today: Anthropic > OpenAI >> Google >> Meta > xAI >= DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba, Zhipu, ByteDance > MiniMax In 12 months I think it's pretty much the same except that all the labs that aren't on the frontier will fall behind by a couple of months depending on how much compute they have I would also really like to add error bars to that, because for some labs the outcome distribution is just much wider.