IMF 总裁 Kristalina Georgieva 表示 AI 正在支撑全球增长，同时抹去年轻劳动者的入门岗位。IMF 研究认为 AI 可能影响发达经济体约 60% 的岗位、全球约 40% 的岗位，其中约一半受影响者可能受益，其余人的关键任务或被自动化，而这些任务往往正是入门级工作的实质内容。IMF 最新预测假设 AI 不带来额外生产率增长，全经济数据仍显示对工资、就业和可测生产率影响甚微；其模型显示 AI 崩盘到 2028 年令全球产出损失 1.1%，而 AI 繁荣到 2029 年仅带来 0.6% 增益。
Business Insider: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva says AI is propping up world growth while erasing young workers’ first jobs.
Because, newcomers usually start in “routine, repetitive jobs” and rise through the ranks.
IMF research finds AI is likely to affect about 60% of jobs in advanced economies and 40% globally.
Roughly half of those exposed workers could benefit, while the rest are likely to see key tasks automated, and those tasks are often the substance of entry-level work.
The IMF just published its latest forecasts and it assume no extra productivity growth from AI, and the report finds that economy-wide data still show little effect on wages, jobs or measured productivity, despite gains on specific tasks. > The surge in AI hardware trade comes mostly from higher prices rather than more units shipped, and rising memory chip costs are already pushing up core-goods inflation in some rich economies. > In the IMF’s models, an AI bust costs the world economy almost twice what an AI boom adds: 1.1% of output lost by 2028, against 0.6% gained by 2029. > AI hardware trade has roughly tripled in value since 2019 because prices rose, not because more was shipped, with Taiwan and Korea supplying 62% of net exports and the US and China taking over 75% of net imports.在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Rohan Paul · x.com