DeepMind 创始人 Hassabis 将 AGI 时间线从五到十年缩短至两到三年
Deepmind founder Hassabis shortens AGI timeline from five to two to three years
Google DeepMind 创始人、诺贝尔化学奖得主 Demis Hassabis 现在认为 AGI 可能在两到三年内到来，而今年早些时候他的估计还是三到五年。他将 AGI 定义为在完整认知范围上匹配人脑的系统，并用"爱因斯坦测试"作为判断标准：仅用 1901 年前知识训练的系统能否复现爱因斯坦 1905 年的论文。他还提议设立由政府控制、行业出资的监督委员会，在模型发布前进行审查。
Oct 21, 2026
Demis Hassabis, Google Deepmind founder and Nobel laureate in chemistry, now believes AGI could arrive within two to three years. He defines AGI as a system matching the full cognitive range of the human brain.
That timeline keeps shrinking. Earlier this year, he said three to five years. "It's going to happen soon. My estimate keeps moving closer to the present," he told the Wall Street Journal. His litmus test is the "Einstein test": Could a system trained only on pre-1901 knowledge reproduce Einstein's 1905 papers?
Hassabis has compared AGI's impact to "10 times the industrial revolution at 10 times the speed." Since stepping down from Google DeepMind, he's focused on Google's drug discovery AI spin-off Isomorphic Labs. On safety, he recently pitched an industry-funded oversight board under government control to vet models before release. Bad regulation, he warns, is worse than none.
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来源：The Decoder · the-decoder.com