FT wrote a piece. Anthropic’s IPO will turn on whether fund managers fear missing out more than they fear messing up.

The case for buying rests less on valuation logic than on fear of being left out of a company that may define the humanity's future of the AI era.

Venture investors are treating Anthropic as a call option on almost unlimited upside, which is why it got this far.

The case against looks like 2007: frontier labs, big tech and listed neoclouds have disclosed $2.1T of debt and non-cancellable compute commitments, against $1.3T of outstanding subprime mortgages then. Like teaser-rate mortgages, take-or-pay contracts can force payment for capacity nobody ends up using.