Morgan Stanley puts 2027’s hyperscaler and neocloud AI spending at $1.58T after counting data-center leases as capex.

Hyperscalers hold over $1.1T in leases that haven’t begun, which work like debt-funded purchases but never appear as capex.

About 65% of the 2027 total, roughly $1.03T, lands in S&P 500 revenue, and Nvidia takes about $690B of it, or 44% of the entire budget.

That leaves roughly $340B for the other 499 index members, while about $550B flows outside the index to Korean memory makers, Taiwanese ODMs and private companies.

With 2027 the projected peak cash shortfall, GPU-rental neoclouds funding builds through project debt and convertibles are the most exposed to financing costs.